Imagine you’re the head of ABC. Last year you greenlit a celebrity diving show, thinking the project could be a follow up to your long running Dancing With The Stars franchise. You decide to commission a whole series of said show and then you learn that one of your competitors – Fox – has gone ahead and greenlit exactly the same concept, calling their show Stars In Danger.

Fox beats you to the punch and premieres their show – just a one off special – in January 2013. The 2-hour ‘event’ crashes badly in the ratings, pulling in just 3.3 million viewers and a measly 1.3 18-49 share. What do you do?

Well it seems that ABC are forging ahead with Splash regardless, which has to make you wonder – does the show stand ANY chance of ratings success.

Personally I think not. Look if ABC had somehow managed to book Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie to go high diving viewers might tune in. But they didn’t. Instead they’ve got Keisha Knight Pullum aka Rudy from The Cosby Show. Kendra Wilkinson. And Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Oh and by the way these are the GOOD names!

Yep, at a time when even Dancing With The Stars is struggling to find 10 – 12 decent cast members each season, Splash has outdone itself on the barrel scraping front.  How bad are we talking? Try a former Family Feud host from 10 years ago. And Chelsea Handler’s assistant. Ouch!

So you have a format that audiences have already soundly rejected, featuring a cast that’s really not going to excite anyone, stretched out to a whole series as opposed to a one off special and on a network that’s having some major ratings issues this season. Sounds like a winner to me!

I’ll admit I watched a chunk of Stars In Danger and it was a pretty dreary production. It wasn’t that it was a bad show. It’s just that watching people dive of high boards is only exciting for so long. Say 5 minutes. And then it gets real old, real fast.

Plus let’s be honest here the days of celebrity ‘competition’ shows scoring big are essentially over. So many of these formats have come and gone over the years – remember Skating With Celebrities, Fast Cars and Superstars or Armed and Famous, anyone? Exactly! And the ones that have endured are now in a pretty sorry state. The last season of Dancing With The Stars was its lowest rated to date and All Star Celebrity Apprentice recently launched with a worryingly low 5.15 million. Celebrity just doesn’t mean too much to audiences anymore. The term has been devalued. There are simply too many D-listers willing to do anything to stay vaguely relevant in our tabloid culture. And a show like Splash now just feels dated and irrelevant.

Of course we’ll see how Splash performs when it premieres on later this month – but my bet is that ABC have a big old flop on their hands that will soon be either axed – or shunted to the Saturday night dead zone.

Time will tell… but don’t expect Splash to make much of one!